Blue October - Congratulations Lyrics Meaning

Considering the key songs in this album; Calling You, Hate Me, and Into the Ocean (In that order according to Justin himself in his Open Book tour) are about the same girl, Congratulations is probably about her as well. She was his first real love and he screwed her over, and now he wants her back, but she is already taken by someone else. After listening to him tell the story, that is what makes sense to me. He realized that he messed up, and it really seems to haunt him.